Scenario Analysis for Managers

by Michel Leseure
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69 pages
Language:
 English
Scenario Analysis for Managers is a hands-on introduction to performing scenario analysis, with a focus on developing your individual knowledge of scenario planning and your own foresight skills.
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Description
Content

Are you keen to develop your capability to anticipate possible and surprising futures? Scenario Analysis for Managers is a practical hands-on introduction to performing scenario analysis, with a focus on developing your individual knowledge of scenario planning and your own foresight skills. The book also contains a review of famous schools of scenario planning for those who want to ‘scale up’ their practice of scenario analysis and start facilitating scenario workshops.

About the author

Michel Leseure has a PhD in Manufacturing Management from the University of Sheffield (UK), an MBA from the Eastern Washington University (USA), and an engineering degree from ENSMM (France). He started his career as a mechanical engineer in the customised capital goods industry. He is now a Senior Lecturer in Operations Management at the University of Chichester Business School. He has previously worked for Loughborough University, Aston Business School, Al Akhawayn University, Plymouth Business School, and the Isle of Man International Business School. Michel’s publications have appeared in journals such as the International Journal of Operations and Production Management, the International Journal of Technology Management, Omega (the International Journal of Management Science), and the International Journal of Business Performance Management. His research interests include organisations and technology as evolving systems, operations and supply chain management, and scenario analysis. Michel is a keen windsurfer and stand-up paddler, and lives in West Sussex on the south coast of the UK.

  1. Introduction to Scenario Analysis
    1. Purpose of the Book
    2. The Anatomy of Scenarios
    3. Scenario Analysis vs. Scenario Planning
  2. How could we get it so wrong?
    1. Case study: The Offshore Valuation
    2. Case study: Alternative Pathways to Cost Reduction
    3. Case study: Scenario analysis at Royal Dutch/Shell
    4. Scenario and Curiosity
  3. Scenario analysis in Context
    1. A context model of scenario analysis
    2. Process outputs
    3. Process Inputs
    4. Process Resources
    5. Process controls
  4. Scenario Process
    1. Purpose of process model
    2. High-level Process Model
    3. A case study
    4. Problem definition & Research
    5. Research
    6. Scenario Analysis
    7. Did it work?
  5. Key Schools of Scenario Analysis
    1. The Intuitive Logics School
    2. Intuitive Logics “Augmented approaches”
    3. The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach
    4. La Prospective
    5. The Manoa School
  6. Scenario Success and Failure
    1. The Ambiguity of Scenario Success
    2. Assessing the Product Quality of Scenarios
    3. How and why does group scenario analysis fail?
  7. Using Scenarios
    1. Framing the Boundaries of Scenario Analysis
    2. Scenario Planning
    3. Performance Aspects
    4. Shaping Opinion and Changing Mindset: beyond Corporate Scenario Analysis
  8. Individual Foresight
    1. Collective or Individual Foresight?
    2. Willingness to Anticipate
  9. References