This is a focused text, considering a range of methods, issues and concepts in management decision making. Written from the perspective of a student/manager unfamiliar and/or uncomfortable with mathematics, the text considers a range of established decision making methods and presents them in the context of a need to develop an inclusive and integrated view of decision analysis in management.
Beschreibung
Inhalt
Bewertungen
- Chapter 1
- Effective Management Decision Making: Introduction
- The Duality of Decision Making?
- Types of Business and Management Decisions
- Who is involved in Decision Making?- The Decision Body
- The three phased model
- Summary
- Key terms and glossary
- Chapter 2
- Developing rational models with qualitative methods and analysis: Data forecasting
- Simple Averaging Forecasting
- Moving Averages
- Exponential Smoothing Data Forecasting
- Errors, accuracy and confidence
- Causal forecasting (explanatory forecasting)
- Non-linear Forecasting and multiple regression– Curve fitting
- Multiple regression and partial regression analysis
- Complete worked non linear forecasting example with seasonality
- Summary
- Key Terms and glossary
- Chapter 3
- Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: probabilities
- The Decision tree – a map of the solution set
- Decision Analysis
- More on probabilities: Expected Monetary Values (EMVs)
- Revising problem information – Bayes Theorem
- The Value of Sample and Perfect Information
- Summary
- Key Terms and glossary
- Chapter closing question
- Chapter 4
- Developing rational models with quantitative methods and analysis: Distribution Functions and Queuing Theory
- The mathematical function: discrete and continuous variables
- The discrete distribution – the binomial function
- Extending binomial number sequences
- The Poisson sequence
- Queuing Theory
- Examples of poisson problems
- More examples of poisson problems:
- Queuing Theory – Modelling reality
- Defining the queuing characteristics
- Example of M/M/ system
- Queuing cost analysis of M/M/ models
- M/M/k queues
- The economic analysis of queues
- Other queuing systems and different waiting line structures
- Example of an arbitrary service time queue
- Summary
- Key terms and glossary
- Chapter 5
- Developing holistic models with qualitative methods of decision analysis: Irrationality in Management Decision Making
- The Monte Carlo Simulation
- Systems thinking about decisions
- Checkland’s Soft System Methodology (SSM) – Mode
- Summary
- Key terms and glossary
- Chapter 6
- The individual in decision making: Heuristics in Management Decision Making:
- More on the cognitive view – schematas and heuristics
- More on heuristics
- Summary
- Key terms and glossary
- Chapter 7
- The role of groups in decision making and long term decision making methods and analysis
- Group decision making – is it really better?
- Group communication
- Convergent thinking emergence in groups- The Abilene Paradox
- Convergent thinking emergence in groups- The Groupthink phenomenon
- Futures forecasting and decision making
- Summary
- Glossary
- References
If most decisions taken by management were effectively considered, the world would have been better than we have today.
Content is complete, goes deep into the subject of decisión making. Extensive research, with more than 100 references to articles. Thanks to author Ian Pownall for the effort and for releasing this book.
This book on Effective Management Decision Making is going to help many young supervisors and managers. It has helped me a lot in job assisting the management.
Gives a clear and concise introduction into management decision making. Would recommend it to any students seeking to gain a grasp on the fundamentals.